Thursday, September 01, 2005

Faith-based, or reality-based?

What is the future of science at Los Alamos?

Scientist calculates Greenland warming
ROGER SNODGRASS, roger@lamonitor.com, Monitor Assistant Editor

A Los Alamos National Laboratory researcher has nailed a significant piece of evidence in the global warming puzzle.
Petr Chylek of LANL's Space and Remote Sensing Science said climate models have predicted that temperature changes in Greenland should occur at a faster rate than global temperature changes.

"But until recently there has been no confirmation that Greenland's long-term temperature changes are related to global warming or that they proceed faster than the global temperature change," Chylek said.
A paper Chylek co-authored with Ulrike Lohmann, of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology and published recently in Geophysical Researcher Letters resolves the apparent paradox.

The question is important, because of the threat of melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, a matter of great concern to geophysicists, because of the enormous volume of water currently locked in Greenland ice.
"Melting of the ice sheet and subsequent sea level rise would spell disaster not only for Greenland, but for the whole planet," the authors wrote in the scientific paper.

Comments:
Intelligent Design--now that's what I call Reality!
 
Now, wait just a minute! Lockheed Martin's got my faith!
 
Oh, yeah? Well if UC is Reality...
 
Computer-model-based speculation: "...it is easy to conclude that the increased intensity of hurricanes is associated with global warming." - Sir David King, chief scientific adviser to the British Government.

Empirical data: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml (major hurricanes way down from a peak in the 1940s)
 
I don't think I would call that 'computer-model-based speculation" - the article seems to say his conclusion is based on ocean surface temperature readings going up, not a computer model. Actually, amazingly enough, most of the people quoted in the article talk about empirical data (aka, 'records').

Of course, maybe that was your point - taking a sufficiently small snippet of the data (or text from an article) can be used to draw any conclusion you'd like.
 
"the article seems to say his conclusion is based on ocean surface temperature readings going up, not a computer model."

And how would one connect ocean temperatures to hurricane count and intensity?

"Actually, amazingly enough, most of the people quoted in the article talk about empirical data"

This is equivocation. The people citing records were disputing David King's claim.

"Of course, maybe that was your point - taking a sufficiently small snippet of the data (or text from an article) can be used to draw any conclusion you'd like."

King's claim seems to me rather self-explanatory, and falsifiable, without calling down a blizzard of complexities.
 
Another LANL triumph. Perhaps even more noteworthy if the temperature in Greenland had been going up instead of down for the past 75 years.
 
Totally missed the point dug. You slam computer models using an article that refers to them in no way. By that logic, here is one.

"...[the] Sound of Thunder could possibly lower your IQ" Paul Clinton, CNN

Therefore, thunderstorms cause brain damage.
 
"Totally missed the point dug. You slam computer models using an article that refers to them in no way."

From the article: "This month [NOAA] raised its hurricane forecast for this year from 18 to 21 tropical storms, including as many as 11 that would become hurricanes."

How do you suppose they came up with that forecast? Earlier, I asked, "And how would one connect ocean temperatures to hurricane count and intensity?" It seems I'm going to have to answer my own question. Here is a list of computer codes NOAA uses to forecast hurricanes: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/F2.html

Incidentally, I'm currently writing computer modeling software for a division that does mostly computer modeling.

"Therefore, thunderstorms cause brain damage."

...and the decline in the number of pirates causes global warming:
http://www.seanbonner.com/blog/archives/001857.php
 
Please pass this along to blogosphere and get media attention ! ! !

Fortune 500 corporate jets needed in New Orleans to assist in medical evacuations on volunteer basis. FAA needs to grant waiver for service as air ambulance.

If they show up they will get used.
 
Call for the question: What is the future of science at Los Alamos? Faith-based, or reality-based?

And as John McLaughlin would say, THE ANSWER IS:

Faith-based.

The Bush Administration is not interested in the science that LANL does; it is ONLY interested in the terrible swift sword of the Lord, which has a nuclear tip. (They might pronounce it "nucular," but it is the thing that scorches innocent women and children, nevertheless.)
 
Post a Comment

<< Home

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?